this post was submitted on 22 May 2026
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It's unlikely. It's not just the machine but decades of proprietary knowledge that is not easily exfiltrated out of ASML. The machines they are trying to rebuild from spare parts from the grey market are not even the latest gen. There's so few of them and they're only held by companies that can afford to pay the $400 million for a single machine, so it's not like they're just falling onto the market without a clear chain of ownership and responsibility.
That's something I don't understand.
I mean there is endless capitalism out there - what prevents China from just buying a company that has one? Like if you out up one Trillion dollars on Trumps desk tomorrow they could basically choose which company they want.
I mean, you're not wrong that this moment is probably China's best opportunity, since the US administration is corrupt and incompetent. Normally the threat of US and allies' punishment for violating export controls counts for something. But we're historically distracted right now and I'm sure China is trying to take advantage.