Economics

Summary

The US dollar plunged 2.16% Thursday to its lowest level since October amid concerns of a "confidence crisis" triggered by Trump's new tariffs.

Deutsche Bank warns the dollar's decline stems from damaged policy credibility, weakened growth expectations, and potential capital flight from US markets.

The trade war has increased rate-cut expectations rather than supporting the dollar through inflation.

Treasury Secretary Bessent's focus on fiscal tightening has further undermined confidence, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped significantly to 4.027%.

KEY POINTS

• China’s finance ministry on Friday said it will impose a 34% tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. starting on April 10.
• The ministry criticized Washington’s decision to impose 34% of additional reciprocal levies on China — bringing total U.S. tariffs against the country to 54% — as “inconsistent with international trade rules.”
• U.S. stock futures and European markets fell sharply on news of the reciprocal tariffs.

Summary

Stellantis temporarily laid off 900 U.S. workers at five Midwest plants due to production pauses at Canadian and Mexican assembly sites, prompted by new tariffs.

Plants in Windsor, Ontario (4,500 workers) and Toluca, Mexico (2,400 workers) will close for up to a month.

Stellantis warned of further impacts, citing market uncertainty.

The United Auto Workers union criticized the layoffs as unnecessary, despite supporting the tariff policy. Canadian union Unifor also condemned the move, warning of immediate harm from tariffs before they officially take effect.

Summary

Markets tumbled after Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement, with S&P 500 futures dropping 3.5%, Nasdaq 100 down over 4.3%, and Dow futures falling 1,000 points.

Analysts called the tariffs "worse than the worst case scenario." Major companies like Apple, Amazon, and Nike saw stock declines up to 7%.

Retailers reliant on imports, like Five Below and Dollar Tree, plunged more than 11%.

Goldman Sachs warned tariffs could raise foreign car prices by $15,000. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed after-hours moves, blaming volatility over policy concerns.

Summary

Trump’s latest sweeping tariffs mark the start of a broader trade war, with economists warning of prolonged global disruption.

The reciprocal tariffs—ranging from 10% to 54%—affect dozens of countries and could trigger widespread retaliation. Analysts fear stagflation and recession, citing the highest tariff levels since 1910.

The White House dismissed negotiation, calling it a “national emergency.” Business leaders call the rollout chaotic, and consumers face higher prices across essentials.

Economists say the trade conflict is open-ended and riskier than Trump’s first-term policies, with unclear consequences and few diplomatic off-ramps.

Summary

The S&P 500 dropped 6.4% in the first 50 trading days of Trump’s second term, marking the third-worst presidential market start since 1950.

Only Nixon and George W. Bush saw steeper early declines.

Analysts blame uncertainty around Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda, which includes a 25% steel and aluminum tariff already in effect and new levies.

China and Canada have retaliated with tariffs of their own. Experts caution markets haven’t fully priced in the economic risks of escalating trade tensions.

Summary

Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports and steep “reciprocal tariffs” targeting countries with high trade barriers, including 34% on China, 24% on Japan, and 20% on the EU.

The tariffs begin April 5 and April 9, respectively. Branded “Liberation Day” tariffs, the move claims to boost U.S. manufacturing and fund tax cuts but is expected to raise consumer prices.

Economists warn of recession risks and market instability.

Allies, including Canada and the EU, plan retaliatory tariffs, raising fears of a global trade war.

Summary

Global markets plunged after Trump’s sweeping tariffs, ranging from 10% to 50%, wiped $2 trillion off Wall Street and sparked fears of a U.S. recession.

The S&P 500 fell 4.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped 5.1%, with major firms like Apple and Microsoft hit hard.

Poor nations face the steepest tariffs: Cambodia at 49%, Vietnam at 46%, Myanmar at 44%.

The U.S. dollar dropped, oil prices fell 7%, and economists warned of a global downturn. Allies condemned the move as “brutal,” with EU retaliation expected mid-April.

Summary

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a targeted response to U.S. tariffs, imposing a 25% duty on U.S. vehicles not compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Auto parts and Mexican vehicle content are exempt.

Carney called Trump’s trade policy a “tragedy” for global commerce, criticizing the end of decades of U.S. economic leadership. He warned it may take time for Washington to reverse course.

Summary

Global stock markets fell sharply and the US dollar hit a six-month low after Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on trade partners, raising fears of economic turmoil.

Asian indices like Japan’s Nikkei dropped over 3%, Vietnam’s market plunged 6.7%, and major European indices also fell.

US tech stocks led declines, with Apple down 7% and Tesla 8%. The dollar slid 1.1%, while gold surged to a record $3,167.50.

Investors fled to safe assets amid fears of a global recession and prolonged trade uncertainty.

Summary

Trump’s new tariffs use a formula based on bilateral trade deficits, not actual tariff reciprocity. The White House divides the U.S. goods deficit with a country by total imports from that country, then halves the result.

For China, a $295B deficit on $440B in imports yields a 34% tariff.

Over 100 countries face tariffs, even some without U.S. trade deficits, like the UK.

Economists widely criticized the method as lacking economic rationale. Experts warn the approach may not reduce the overall trade deficit and could harm global growth.

Summary

The U.S. raised total tariffs on Chinese imports to 54%, combining a new 34% “reciprocal” rate with an existing 20% tariff.

Some estimates, including fentanyl-related and past tariffs, place the effective rate as high as 76%.

China condemned the move as “unilateral bullying” and pledged countermeasures.

U.S. retailers like Target and Walmart saw stock drops, while global leaders, including Australia’s prime minister, criticized the tariffs for hurting trade relations and increasing consumer costs.

Trump’s administration appears unlikely to negotiate changes in the near term.

Summary

Hooters filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Texas, planning to sell its 100 company-owned restaurants to two major franchisee groups from Tampa and Chicago.

These groups already run a third of Hooters' U.S. franchises. The company blamed closures on rising food and labor costs and faces lawsuits over discrimination.

It expects to exit bankruptcy within 90–120 days. Private equity owners Nord Bay Capital and TriArtisan bought Hooters in 2019.

The buyer group includes original founders aiming to make the brand more family-friendly.

Summary

Tesla reported a 13% drop in global vehicle sales for Q1 2025, its worst quarter since 2022, missing analysts’ expectations by over 70,000 units.

Analysts cite an ageing product lineup, factory downtimes, rising competition from rivals like BYD, and growing public backlash against Elon Musk’s political actions and controversial behavior.

Despite discounts and incentives, demand lagged, especially for the Model Y, which awaits an updated version.

Tesla’s stock has fallen sharply since December, and analysts warn that unless Musk refocuses on the company, volatility and underperformance may continue.

opentariffs.fyi

What is interesting:

-New tariff rate is simply Country's Trade Deficit / Country's Exports to the US

-Taiwan recognized as country

-French territories not recognized as EU and lower tariff than EU, Same for Uk territories with BVI and Falklands

Anything else?

Summary

China, Japan, and South Korea have resumed trade cooperation, pledging to deepen ties under China's lead, marking a major geopolitical shift as the U.S. embraces isolationist tariffs.

The three ministers held a symbolic unity gesture in Seoul, reinforcing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

China is also engaging the EU to counter Trump's trade agenda. Trump's proposed tariffs could extract $6 trillion over a decade, risking stagflation and global recession.

Critics call his actions unconstitutional and fear global retaliation, potentially collapsing the current trade order and triggering a tit-for-tat spiral.

Summary

Tesla's stock fell 36% in Q1 2025, closing at $259.16, down from $403.84 at the end of 2024, making it one of the S&P 500’s worst performers.

The drop follows public backlash against Elon Musk's role in Trump’s cost-cutting DOGE initiative. Protests, vandalism, and a global “Tesla Takedown” campaign targeted Musk and Tesla.

Musk’s net worth dropped $121 billion.

Ongoing market volatility, tied to Trump’s new tariff plan launching April 2, is expected to further impact Tesla and broader markets.

Summary

Trump is considering a sweeping 20% tariff on most U.S. imports, according to the Washington Post, as part of the upcoming reciprocal trade plan.

Trump has vowed to target all nations he claims treat the U.S. unfairly.

While no final decision has been made, officials are also discussing using expected tariff revenue for a tax refund or dividend.

Markets are awaiting full details, which Trump plans to announce Wednesday. The administration has already raised tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and all Chinese imports.