Europe

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44389052

UK's Secret Intelligence Service MI6 is right to warn about Russia’s campaign of petty sabotage against the West. The goal is to disrupt and distract.

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Three Bulgarians [painting] red hands on Paris’s Holocaust Memorial ... An arson attack on an Ikea store in Vilnius, vandalising phone towers in Sweden and hacking the Czech railway operator, all in the past 12 months. Moscow has unleashed its intelligence agencies to carry out what seem petty incidents of sabotage. The International Institute for Strategic Studies has recorded at least 67 such incidents since 2022 in countries all over Europe thought to be linked to Russia.

Although attribution is often difficult, and some incidents will have nothing to do with Russia, it is clear that Putin’s regime is conducting a campaign of disruption and destruction in Europe. [UK's Spy chief Blaise] Metreweli called this “export of chaos” ... to divide, distract and dismay the West.

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There has been something of a shift in Russia’s campaign in recent years. In the past, the focus was on disinformation and amplifying disruptive political messages. Unlike the USSR, Putin’s Russia is essentially post-ideological. It can thus be all things to all people, and promote every useful message — from hard-right migrant alarmism to hard-left anticapitalism; regional secessionism to blood and soil nationalism; Black Lives Matter to the National Rifle Association.

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Sometimes, there are clear practical benefits for Moscow, such as the placing of cameras along Polish railway lines on which aid to Ukraine flows. (The cameras were discovered by railway staff and six people were arrested in 2023.) In other cases, operations are still about heightening division in society: the red-hand graffiti in Paris, for example, was used by Russian disinformation outlets to paint France as a haven for antisemitism.

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Moscow’s goal now seems to be to start to make people feel that their country’s support for Ukraine affects them directly. A [UK intel] GCHQ analyst, for example, told me of apparent efforts to temporarily degrade internet bandwidth, noting that “it may sound trivial, but think of the annoyance if you can’t do your online banking, or the film you wanted to download takes hours buffering”.

No one will go to war because their train is delayed or their phone signal wobbly — but they might begin to think twice about supporting another country’s war if the toll of inconveniences begins to mount. It also contributes to another Kremlin (and, indeed, Chinese) talking point, that degenerate western democracies simply don’t work.

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One of the reasons it is so difficult to resist and prepare for these attacks is their very variety. In May 2024, a German arms factory was gutted in a blaze the authorities blamed on Russian agents. In July 2024, improvised explosives hidden inside electric massagers detonated in DHL logistics hubs in Germany, Poland and the UK. The next month, mysterious break-ins on military bases in Germany prompted fears that water supplies had been tainted.

On Christmas Day last year, an ageing tanker leaving a Russian port seems to have dragged its anchors across the Estlink 2 underwater power cable between Estonia and Finland, cutting it. Last month Polish railway lines were cut by a bomb, and in recent weeks, what were described as “military-style drones” shadowed President Zelensky’s jet as he flew to Dublin.

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This also highlights another virtue of this new strategy for the Kremlin: it encourages and mobilises our own paranoia. Many of the alleged “Russian drones” which shut down airports across Europe in the autumn turned out either to be nothing to do with Russia — or not even to be drones at all. Once people were on their guard, though, they began seeing drones everywhere, and risk-averse airport operators duly shut down flights as soon as a report came in .... A Polish diplomat put it starkly: “The Kremlin has learned that it cannot get Europe to like it, so it hopes to force concessions on us by making us fear it.”

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One striking characteristic of the attacks to date has been that they tend to come in waves, followed by periods of relative calm, with little real connection to the military or political situation. The concern in some intelligence circles is that this is still a campaign at its “beta testing” phase — that after each spate of attacks, the Russians regroup and consider the lessons.

“It’s when they think they know what works best,” one British security official speculated, “that we might see them ready for a serious, sustained challenge.”

Nor is it a challenge likely to end if and when there is peace in Ukraine. With the White House now seen as a potential partner, Russian propaganda has pivoted to seeing Europe as its main enemy given its continued support for Kyiv. We may well have to cope with such attacks as long as Putin is in the Kremlin.

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In many ways, the best, if less exciting response is to go back to how Europe coped with political terrorism in the 1970s and 1980s: foiling as many plots as possible, but accepting that some would inevitably succeed. The answer was — and is — not to let that panic us or force a change in policy: to keep calm and carry on.

Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44387723

The chief legal counsel for the Free Speech Union in the UK was approached three times by accounts claiming to be researchers, but something seemed suspicious.

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[Bryn Harris'] name is associated with the Free Speech Union's [FSU’s] submissions to government on higher education legislation, passed in 2023, to strengthen legal protections for free speech and academic freedom across universities. It was intended to lessen the influence of Confucius institutes, Beijing-funded programmes that have been used for academic interference and to control the narrative around China at UK campuses.

He enlisted the help of UK-China Transparency (UKCT), a charity that researches the ties between Britain and China and focuses on the work of the communist party.

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Harris had first been contacted by a researcher called Lala Chen in June, another in July who called herself Ailin, and then a third woman called Emily in October.

UKCT arranged a technical analysis, which established that while the trio purported to work from the US, they were in the Asia-Pacific region. One used the photographs of a well known Korean actress, and another used an avatar from a Facebook dating service.

Harris suspected he was the target of a “China capture” campaign. It comes after MI5 issued a recent alert to MPs and peers that they were being targeted for information by Chinese intelligence agents. The Security Service identified two Linkedin profiles, used by Chinese spies, purporting to be “civilian recruitment headhunters” and targeting politicians to solicit insights and secrets.

MI5 also warned that Chinese spies were creating fake job adverts to try and lure government staff, academics, think tank employees and private defence contractors into handing over information. Thousands of suspicious job adverts have been posted to online job platforms “with more appearing daily”, according to the National Protective Security Authority, a branch of MI5.

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The targeting was not particularly sophisticated, Whitehall sources said, acknowledging that Chinese agents were sending out thousands of approaches and “kissing a lot of frogs”, but only needed one person to be lured in to consider the technique a win.

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While Harris was suspicious of the approaches immediately, he said he wanted to raise further awareness so that other professionals would be wary of similar approaches and job offers.

Sam Dunning, the director of UKCT, said it had also had repeated hostile cyber phishing attempts including one involving the impersonation of one of its advisers.

He said UK scientists were also receiving frequent research collaboration and job offers.

“It is remarkable that British citizens going about their lives should receive approaches of this kind. The strategy behind such approaches is exploitative, divisive and dishonest. We should ask ourselves: if this is what it is like now, then what does the future hold?”

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Archive link

Addition:

Chinese spies are everywhere in UK. I’ve been followed to the pub -- [Archive link}

A dissident living in London reveals how agents have infiltrated British institutions, watching, following and feeding information back home

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44343033

A survey of export firms published on Friday by the Finnish Chamber of Commerce indicates that most have high hopes for next year.

Nearly two-thirds of companies that responded to the poll expect exports to grow in 2026. That's up by six percentage points from a year ago, when six out of 10 said so. Expectations for the coming year are the most positive since 2022, when the question was first included in an annual corporate survey.

Last year, 11 percent of companies forecast that exports would decline, while now the corresponding figure was seven percent.

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In particular, firms expect that Germany's planned 500-billion-euro investments in infrastructure, digitalisation and defence will drive exports in Finland as well. Last week, Germany launched an additional 30-billion-euro initiative to boost private investments, Reuters reports.

Some 44 percent of respondents said they expect to benefit from those investments.

"In particular, companies feel that their prospects are brightened by investments in the defence sector and the green transition," Päivi Pohjanheimo, Director of International Affairs at the Central Chamber of Commerce, said in a press release on Friday.

"The construction and defence sectors particularly believe that they will benefit from German investments," she added.

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Hardly any firms said that they have moved operations or production to the United States as a result of President Donald Trump's tariffs policy. Instead, 80 percent of respondents said they are more interested in the EU market, with many expanding their European business due to the tariff policy.

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"The answers clearly reflect the current geopolitical situation: the unpredictability of the United States is worrying export companies. Instead, respondents see the EU and Nordic countries as safe and increasingly important trading partners," said Pohjanheimo.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44329606

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44329196

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The university’s joint venture campus in China maintains partnerships and close links with entities sanctioned by Britain, the US, EU and others for supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and assisting China’s military modernisation and human rights violations, an investigation by the Australian Strategic Research Institute (ASPI) has found.

The previously unreported links to sanctions highlight the risks posed by foreign science, technology and academic partnerships in China in a period of heightened geopolitical rivalry, intensifying technological competition and deepening China-Russia cooperation. The joint venture campus’s partnerships cover a range of areas but centre on critical technologies, many with both military and civilian applications.

These partnerships include a new China-Russia cooperation centre whose Russian co-director is affiliated with a sanctioned Russian government agency; a formal new initiative with a leading Chinese government supercomputing centre that was placed on the US federal entity list in 2021 for involvement in China’s military modernisation efforts; and a chips school co-founded by a US-sanctioned Chinese government semiconductor research institute. Top staff in China have said the joint campus aims to design and manufacture its own semiconductors.

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The joint venture campus, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU), was established in 2006 by the University of Liverpool and its partner institution, Xi’an Jiaotong University, a leading Chinese defence university that has supplied the Rocket Force of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and is supervised by China’s defence-industry ministry. Located in Suzhou, a city in Jiangsu province, XJTLU is the largest foreign joint venture university in China and one of many such joint campuses and institutes that have been formed in China with US, European, British, Australian and other foreign partners in recent decades.

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The University of Liverpool is one of Britain’s top research universities. It is a member of the country’s prestigious Russell Group of research-intensive universities and receives defence, security and intelligence funding from Western governments. In September 2024, for example, the defence ministers of the US, Britain and Australia announced in an official AUKUS communique that the University of Liverpool was an inaugural winner of the AUKUS Electronic Warfare Innovation Prize Challenge.

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XJTLU has become a research powerhouse, with around 25,000 students and 1,000 academic staff members. It houses several provincial and municipal key research institutes, including a national supercomputing centre, a robotics research institute, and an advanced semiconductor research institute that partners with smart-city company China Huaxin.

In 2024, XJTLU received funding from the PLA’s National University of Defense Technology for a research project called ‘Deep Learning-based Adversarial Sample Defense Technology for Communication Signal Modulation Recognition’. In 2025, an XJTLU research team set a new global record in an international competition in quantum-resistant cryptography. Researchers from the University of Liverpool also collaborate with XJTLU researchers on topics such as radar and autonomous driving.

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In April 2025, XJTLU launched a research partnership with the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, one of seven Chinese supercomputing groups added to the US federal entity list in 2021 due to their involvement in China’s military modernisation efforts.

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XJTLU’s School of CHIPS, which focuses on research and development for advanced computing chips, was co-founded in 2019 by a Chinese government research institute, the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology, that was placed on the US federal entity list in 2024 for acting against US national security and foreign policy interests. The dean of the XJTLU School of CHIPS, Wei Chen, said in 2024 his goal was for XJTLU to design and manufacture its own semiconductors.

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Sugon, a Chinese supercomputer manufacturer that co-established XJTLU’s School of AI and Advanced Computing in 2018, was added to the US federal entity list in 2019 due to the ‘publicly acknowledged’ military end uses of its high-performance computers.

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XJTLU also hosts a joint lab with iFlytek, a Chinese technology company added to the US federal entity list in 2019 for its role in the Chinese government’s high-tech surveillance regime targeting Muslim minorities in China’s Xinjiang region.

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The University of Liverpool website, which has a dedicated page for the XJTLU partnership and related news, does not mention the China-Russia centre, XJTLU’s joint lab with iFlytek, XJTLU’s new partnership with the supercomputing centre in Wuxi, or the school’s aspirations to make its own semiconductors in China.

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Britain itself has a range of sanctions targeting Russia, including some that prohibit the provision of professional and business services ‘to a person connected with Russia’ and which apply to ‘any UK persons anywhere.’ The British government also placed research and innovation sanctions on Russia in 2022. This included pausing British public funds being spent on projects ‘with a Russian dimension’ and ceasing collaborative projects with Russia. At that time the British government also commissioned an assessment to ‘isolate and freeze activities which benefit the Russian regime’.

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In addition to its success in winning an inaugural AUKUS electronic-warfare innovation prize, the University of Liverpool has active grants from the European Commission and US government, including grants from the US Air Force and FBI.

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The XJTLU China-Russia centre’s Russian co-director, Artem Semenov, is an adviser to the Moscow regional government and a member of the public advisory council of Rossotrudnichestvo, a humanitarian and cultural agency under the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The EU sanctioned Rossotrudnichestvo in 2022, describing it as ‘the main state agency projecting the Kremlin’s soft power and hybrid influence,’ adding that it acted as an ‘umbrella organization for a network of Russian compatriots and agents of influence, and it funds various public diplomacy and propaganda projects, consolidating the activities of pro-Russian players and disseminating the Kremlin’s narratives.’

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A former Russian senator and current adviser to the Moscow regional government, Olga Zabralova, led the Russian government delegation that attended the centre’s launch. Zabralova is sanctioned by Britain, the US, the EU, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Ukraine, Australia, New Zealand and Monaco. She was a member of the Russian Federation Council that ratified the government’s decision to annex parts of occupied Ukraine. XJTLU hosted Zabralova and her delegation at X-Bar, the student activity and recreation centre.

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In a written response to questions from ASPI, a University of Liverpool spokesperson said, ‘The University of Liverpool has no involvement in XJTLU’s Centre for China-Russia Humanitarian Cooperation and Development, nor with the companies mentioned ...’

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Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44340351

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[Putin said that the task] had been accomplished: inflation would end the year below 6%.

Yet the Central Bank undercut that narrative almost immediately. Contrary to expectations, it lowered the key rate from 16.5% to just 16%.

If inflation truly is below 6%, that implies a real interest rate of roughly 10% — among the highest in the world. Brazil, often cited as an outlier, sits at 9.2%, while Mexico at 5.3%. Turkey and Argentina, despite having interest rates of around 38% and 29% respectively, do not even make the list because inflation there is near or above those levels.

[Russia Central Bank Governor Elvira] Nabiullina’s remarks after this month's rate meeting seemed to support this. Inflation has declined, she said, but not sustainably. The 6% figure only appeared in weekly data, which is not a reliable basis for identifying trends. And although inflation fell in November, it rose in October.

And beginning in January, it is expected to accelerate again, driven by a higher value-added tax (VAT), now applied to a wider swath of businesses, and by another round of increases in utility tariffs.

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Nabiullina, who once cloaked bad news in careful technocratic language, sounded increasingly like a Soviet official reciting a familiar formula: yes, there are shortcomings, but the strengths outweigh them. When all else fails, there is always the reassurance that the economy is “returning to a trajectory of balanced growth.”

In other words, the economy is shrinking — but it is shrinking according to plan.

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The government’s long-term budget forecast was striking in two respects. First, its sheer horizon: projections extend to 2042. Second, its candor: the budget is expected to remain in deficit throughout that entire period.

Even here, Soviet habits are evident. Oil is optimistically forecast at $69 a barrel by 2031. Officials stress that oil revenues will gradually give way to tax income. Putin promised that the higher VAT is not permanent, though he did not say when it would end. One might reasonably suspect it will end in 2042.

The date itself feels telling. It invites a grim literary echo of Venedikt Yerofeyev and Vladimir Voinovich’s dystopian “Moscow 2042.” It is hard to believe the choice was accidental.

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Then, too, Soviet decline was accompanied by triumphant propaganda. The language has changed, but not the function. Soon, Russians will be told daily how Ukrainian and European “militarism” obstructs Russia’s desire for peace. The euphemism of “forcing peace” requires no invention; it was tested long ago.

If this déjà vu is more than psychological, it is possible to sketch a timeline for how long the Russian economy will last. Oil prices collapsed in 1985. Though the Soviet Union survived until 1991, its economy became effectively nonviable by 1989.

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But the Soviet example suggests that public patience can end suddenly and collectively. Military spending now stands at 7.3% of GDP, according to a presentation by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, a figure comparable to late-Soviet levels.

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Even if fighting were to end, Russia will be paying for this war for years, not least through high interest costs on government bonds. This year alone, the state issued nearly 8 trillion rubles’ ($102.5 billion) worth.

Meanwhile, the government is already propping up struggling sectors ranging from carmakers and aircraft manufacturers to railways, coal, metals and oil.

Even defense enterprises are faltering. Workers at the Kingisepp Machine-Building Plant, a strategic supplier to the Navy, recently complained of unpaid wages. The company’s director responded angrily, accusing them of petty self-interest at a time of national struggle.

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Whether this story concludes suddenly and almost bloodlessly, as the Soviet collapse did, or drags on in a long and painful decline is impossible to know. History does not repeat itself exactly.

But when economic narratives begin to sound this familiar, it is hard not to start counting the years.

Web archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44149336

Archive link

A satirical sculptor from Düsseldorf has expressed bewilderment after Russian prosecutors charged him in a Moscow court with criminally defaming the country’s army.

Jacques Tilly, 62, is Germany’s most prominent designer of carnival floats and has spent 40 years creating outsized and grotesque papier-mâché models of figures including President Trump, Angela Merkel and Baroness May of Maidenhead.

Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, his floats have repeatedly mocked President Putin’s brutality.

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This year’s float for the Düsseldorf carnival depicted Trump and Putin shaking hands, with President Zelensky crushed in their grip and haemorrhaging blood, along with the caption: “Hitler-Stalin pact 2.0”.

Previous editions have shown Putin choking on a map of Ukraine and posing naked alongside Trump and President Xi of China, with a gigantically enlarged scrotum emblazoned with the words “Make Russia great again”.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44092359

Russian forces have forcibly detained and deported about 50 Ukrainian civilians from the village of Hrabovske in Ukraine’s eastern Sumy region, Dmytro Lubinets, the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, confirmed in a Telegram post on December 21.

Lubinets said Russian troops illegally detained residents of the border village on December 18, held them without access to communication or proper conditions, and on December 20 transported them into Russian territory. He described the actions as a grave violation of international humanitarian law, including unlawful detention and the forced deportation of civilians.

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Officer of the Main Communications Directorate Dmytro Lykhovii confirmed in a comment to Ukrainian Pravda that up to 50 civilians, mostly elderly men and women who had previously refused evacuation, were taken from the village. One of the abducted residents is reportedly 89 years old.

According to Ukraine’s Joint Forces Task Force, fighting continued overnight as Ukrainian forces moved to push Russian troops out of the area.

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Addition:

In a report, British newspaper The Times said the fifty civilians were "abducted in ‘medieval’ border raid on Ukrainian village." -- (archived linkhttps://archive.ph/8XvG9#selection-1795.0-1801.266)

... Viktor Trehubov, the head of the Joint Forces Communications Department, said: “It looks like some kind of more localised provocation in an area that was not a key area before. It’s not about strategic goals, it’s about kidnapping people for some kind of political or information attack.”

... Ukraine has previously accused Moscow of systematically abducting civilians from occupied or contested areas, actions Kyiv said violated international humanitarian law.

Russia has also forcibly transferred thousands of civilians, including children, from occupied territory during the war. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants over the alleged deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, a charge Moscow denies.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44053643

Opinion piece by Sir William Browder, founder and head of the [Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign](Sir William Browder is the author of Red Notice and Freezing Order, and head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign)

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The EU agreed to extend a €90 billion (£79 billion) interest-free loan to Ukraine, intended to safeguard the country’s defences and basic functioning for the next two years.

It was a vital lifeline but it came with a grave failure: the outright rejection of a far bolder and more just plan to confiscate Russia’s frozen central bank assets and put them to work for Ukraine.

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The assets in question amount to roughly €210 billion in Russian central bank reserves, immobilised inside the EU just weeks after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. They represent a vast war chest belonging to a regime committing mass murder, war crimes and territorial theft in plain sight. Yet they remain untouched, sitting inert in the West’s financial institutions while Ukrainian cities are reduced to rubble.

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The urgency of this moment cannot be overstated. The Brussels summit took place against a backdrop of mounting danger for both Ukraine and Europe. Since returning to office in January, President Trump has followed through on his campaign promise to slash American support for Ukraine. In February 2025, after a shameful attack on President Zelensky in the Oval Office, Trump ordered a full pause on all US military assistance. Up to that point, the United States had provided roughly 40 per cent of Ukraine’s military support. Its sudden withdrawal pushed Kyiv to the edge of disaster.

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Putin is already testing the boundaries of Western resolve. Russia’s drones have violated Polish airspace. Its fighter jets have breached Estonian skies. In the Baltic Sea, undersea cables have been cut in acts of suspected sabotage. These are calculated provocations, designed to probe Nato’s defences and measure our willingness to respond.

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Instead of making Russia pay for the destruction it has caused, we are asking citizens across Europe to underwrite Ukraine’s survival through public debt. It is a stopgap, not a solution, and it signals weakness where strength is required.

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There was, at least, one modest breakthrough. Days before the summit, the EU invoked an emergency legal mechanism to freeze Russia’s €210 billion in assets indefinitely, rather than renewing the sanctions every six months. Until now, a single member state could veto each renewal.

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What is most dispiriting is why confiscation was rejected. A small group of countries, led by leaders openly sympathetic to Moscow, blocked the plan. Hungary and Slovakia played their expected roles. More shocking was the opposition from the Czech Republic, a country with its own painful history of Russian domination. Belgium, which holds most of the assets through its Euroclear depository, ultimately refused to move forward after its prime minister [Bart De Wever] reportedly was personally threatened by the Kremlin.

This capitulation is shameful. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czechs are all net beneficiaries of EU funds. Yet they have forced the rest of Europe’s 450 million citizens to shoulder the cost of supporting Ukraine, while Putin’s money remains untouched. Taxpayers in Germany, France, the Netherlands and elsewhere will now foot the bill. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is openly mocking Europe’s timidity.

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History teaches us that financial pressure can succeed where diplomacy fails. Russia may not count its dead but it surely count its money. Seizing those frozen reserves would strike at the heart of Putin’s system and hasten an end to the war.

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This debate is not over. The assets remain frozen. The war continues. The moral case for confiscation grows stronger every day. Europe’s leaders must return to this issue. Countries that obstruct justice should face consequences, including reductions in EU funding to offset the cost of the loan. Belgium’s prime minister should be shamed for yielding to intimidation. And the UK, which is not constrained by EU infighting, should set an example. Instead of copying the EU and standing down, which it announced on Friday, the UK should confiscate the billions in Russian assets frozen in London and transfer them to Ukraine.

After two decades confronting the Kremlin, I have learnt one lesson above all others: evil advances when good people hesitate. Putin invaded Ukraine expecting a divided and fearful West. We must prove him wrong. Confiscating his frozen billions is not theft. It is restitution. It is justice. And it is long overdue.

Archive link

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44109748

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“According to information available to us, since November 2023, Belarus has been implementing a classified state project codenamed Uchastok, which involves the creation of full-cycle production of Soviet-caliber artillery and rocket ammunition – 122 mm and 152 mm," said Vladimir Zhihar, an official representative of the Belarusian opposition initiative BELPOL.

"The project is strategically linked to the interests of Russia’s Ministry of Defense, as the final products are intended for export and use in the war against Ukraine,” Zhihar said.

According to him, the project is expected to be completed by December 2026 and could significantly strengthen the material and technical support of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. Its implementation is based on a secret order by Aleksandr Lukashenko.

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The plant was founded by VolatAvto and the state-owned Precision Electromechanics Plant, and is overseen by the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus.

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Zhihar also noted that Belarus does not produce any of the critical components required for explosives, making the plant dependent on imported technologies and materials. The main partners in the project are Russia and China.

“Russia supplies production lines and components, is involved in personnel training, and will evidently be the main supplier of explosives and propellants. China, according to our information, is supplying filling lines for 122 mm warheads, participating in personnel training, and providing explosives. Negotiations are also underway with Iran and Pakistan,” Zhihar said.

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Additional facts, documents, and visual materials confirming the implementation of this project are presented in a BELPOL investigation published on the organization’s YouTube channel on Sunday.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/44036405

Web archive link

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On Dec. 15, the European Union imposed sanctions on the International Russophile Movement, or IRM. Few people had heard of it, but over the past three years it has effectively replaced official pro-Kremlin organizations formerly operating in the EU, where life for them became far more difficult after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Russian World Foundation, the Gorchakov Foundation, and Pravfond — all controlled by Russia’s Foreign Ministry — faced sanctions, asset freezes, staff expulsions and increased oversight. As a result, the IRM emerged in 2023 under the auspices of the Foreign Ministry and Konstantin Malofeev, a billionaire fraudster with ties to Russian intelligence services.

Although the movement is publicly presented as a grassroots initiative made up of EU citizens, in practice the IRM is backed by several Kremlin influence networks. The “Russophiles” openly said they feared sanctions and did not plan to create legal entities, but that did not help. The new structure appears headed for the same inglorious fate as the earlier Kremlin puppet organizations that were sanctioned after the start of the full-scale war.

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An alliance of political marginals and conspiracy theorists

The founding congress of the International Russophile Movement was held in Moscow in March 2023. According to the organizers, around 90 representatives from 42 countries attended the event. Prominent “Russophiles” among the guests included actor Steven Seagal, former French president Charles de Gaulle’s grandson Pierre, and Italian princess Vittoria Alliata di Villafranca (who translated The Lord of the Rings into her native language). The Guardian described the participants as “political marginals and conspiracy theorists.”

Those who came to support and guide the “Russophiles” included Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, his deputies Mikhail Bogdanov and Alexander Grushko; Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, Rossotrudnichestvo head Yevgeny Primakov, “Orthodox oligarch” Konstantin Malofeeev, far-right philosopher Alexander Dugin, and the chairs of the international affairs committees from both chambers of the Russian parliament — LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky and senator Grigory Karasin. At the congress, Lavrov read out a message from Vladimir Putin that noted the “targeted anti-Russian hysteria in many countries” and thanked the participants for their “firm resolve to oppose the Russophobic campaign.” General Charles de Gaulle's grandson Pierre de Gaulle with State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin at a meeting in Moscow

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43978801

Web archive link

The British government said Friday it is investigating a “cyber incident” following news reports that hackers linked to China have gained access to thousands of confidential documents held by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Trade Minister Chris Bryant said the investigation began in October and the government believes there is a “fairly low risk” that anyone’s personal information has been compromised.

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The allegations come at a sensitive time in Britain’s relationship with China as Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government tries to rebuild trade and diplomatic links that have been strained by concerns about Chinese spying and human rights abuses.

Starmer reportedly plans to travel to China in late January, the first time a British prime minister will visit the country since 2018. Meanwhile, the government has delayed a decision on China’s plans to build a massive new embassy in London amid criticism that it could be used as a base for espionage.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43978709

Web archive link

Russia carried out cyberattacks against infrastructure and websites in Denmark in 2024 and 2025, Danish authorities say in a new assessment published this week describing new cases not previously reported.

Moscow was responsible for “destructive and disruptive” cyberattacks on a Danish water utility company in 2024 and a series of denial of service attacks which overwhelmed Danish websites ahead of regional and local elections last month, Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service said in a statement Thursday. The water company said the attack caused pipes to burst, leaving homes temporarily without water.

Jan Hansen, the head of the Tureby Alkestrup Waterworks southwest of the capital Copenhagen, said his advice to other companies was not to cut costs on cybersecurity and to take out cyber insurance. The attack happened, he said, because the waterworks switched to cheaper cybersecurity, which was not as secure as that previously.

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The Danish intelligence service said the attacks were part of Russia’s “hybrid war” against the West and an attempt to create instability. It said Moscow’s cyberattacks are part of a broader campaign to undermine and punish countries which support Ukraine. Russian hackers have previously been accused of carrying out hacks on other water facilities in Europe — including on a Norwegian dam where Norwegian authorities said hackers opened valves to allow water to pour out.

Archive link

Pina Picierno is Italian, but Ukraine is everywhere in her vice president's office at the European Parliament in Brussels. Awards resting on the window ledge recognize her fight "for freedom and democracy in Ukraine," like the one she received in 2022 from the Istituto Affari Internazionali, an Italian think tank. There are books and novels devoted to Russia and its unfortunate neighbor, invaded by Kremlin troops in February 2022 and struggling ever since not to be carved up and subjugated. There is also a curious painting, a gift from Ukrainian army veterans, depicting their country's yellow and blue trident, into which real bullets have been embedded.

But what visitors do not notice at first glance is the small red button beneath the meeting table: a "panic button" meant to alert the Parliament security teams in case of danger or intrusion. The surveillance camera at the entrance, filming comings and goings, is just as discreet. Whenever she leaves the building, the MEP is always accompanied by a police escort. "I can't just wake up and go for a walk or suddenly decide to see a film," she said on Friday, December 12. "But there are people who risk far more than I do. Ukrainians, in their trenches, are under bombardment to defend their freedom."

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For months, Picierno has lost count of the death threats she has received in the mail and in her email inbox. She has been the target of intimidation near her home in Belgium – incidents she does not want to discuss in detail so as not to interfere with the ongoing investigation. In January, pro-Russian activists distributed leaflets in Bologna, Italy, comparing her to Joseph Goebbels, Adolf Hitler's propaganda minister. Does she see Russia's hand behind these acts? "Yes," she replied simply, her face tense.

One episode in particular has fueled Moscow's anger in recent months. In early March, Vladimir Soloviev, a star host on the Russian state television channel Rossiya 1, was invited to appear on a television program in Italy on the channel Rai 3. Picierno publicly protested against this red-carpet treatment for "one of the Kremlin's main propagandists," who has been under European Union sanctions since 2022. "Italian public broadcasting cannot in any way serve as a megaphone for Russian disinformation," she warned on X.

Her efforts paid off: Soloviev's invitation was revoked. Furious, he lashed out with insults on his show on Rossiya 1. "Her mouth stinks of tyranny," he said – in Italian – referring to the MEP, whom he called a "dirty beast, a disgrace to the human race." Internet trolls then harassed her. The barrage was so relentless that she quickly stopped paying attention. But the escalation reached such a level that in June, the Italian government decided to place her under police protection.

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The Italian is not the only European lawmaker facing pressure from Moscow since the war in Ukraine began nearly four years ago. "There are several of us being targeted by death threats – I myself regularly receive them on social media or by email," said French MEP Nathalie Loiseau (Renew Europe). She recounted how her hotel room was ransacked earlier this year while she was leading a mission observing the legislative elections in Kosovo. For the former minister for European affairs, a strong critic of Putin's regime, there is no doubt about Russia's involvement. "It was an act of intimidation," she said.

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Her colleagues at the European Parliament have noticed that the native of the Naples region has lost weight in recent months. Out of fear of being poisoned, she now only eats food she prepares herself. "I'm human; fear is a normal feeling," she said. "But I also have a duty to be courageous. It's the price to pay if you want to try to change things." She quickly understood the seriousness of her commitment when she entered politics at the age of 16 to denounce the Mafia's hold on her country. Journalist Roberto Saviano, known for his work on the Camorra and who also lives under police protection, is a friend of hers.

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"We need a Europe that is more courageous, stronger and more ambitious," said the MEP. A Europe that takes risks, so as not to run the risk of disappearing.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43886867

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After the mass shooting of Hanukkah celebrants on Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, the Kremlin-linked disinformation network known as “Matryoshka” has been promoting claims of an alleged “Ukrainian trail” and frightening Europeans with threats of new terrorist attacks. The watchdog Bot Blocker project (@antibot4navalny), which has been monitoring the network, shared its findings with The Insider.

One video circulating on Twitter (X) and Bluesky is disguised as content produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). It claims that experts found markings on the shotguns used by the attackers in Sydney that are supposedly applied to weapons delivered to Ukraine. The video falsely claims that Ukraine has become the “largest source of weapons for the black market.”

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Another video, produced in English, uses the symbolism of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst). It begins with real information about planned terrorist attacks in German cities during the Christmas holidays, then mentions the shooting on the Australian beach — while claiming the perpetrators were connected to “representatives of Ukraine.” The video contains an error revealing poor fact-checking: it states that both shooters in Australia were killed, whereas only one was shot dead, while the second was wounded and detained. A similar video following the same template includes French subtitles and the symbols of French government agencies.

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The bots are also spreading images of alarming graffiti that, supposedly, appeared in Berlin. The images depict a Christmas tree with a time bomb beneath it, as well as the date 25.12.2025. One of the posts, posing as an Instagram story from the BBC, read “Graffiti warning of a terrorist attack appeared in three boroughs of Berlin.”

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The attack in Sydney took place on Sunday, Dec. 14, the first day of Hanukkah. The attackers opened fire on people gathered on Bondi Beach for an event organized by the Chabad movement. Fifteen people were killed and several dozen were wounded. According to police, the shooting was carried out by 50-year-old Sajid Akram, who was shot dead at the scene, and his 24-year-old son, Naveed Akram, who was wounded and is currently hospitalized. Flags of the terrorist organization Islamic State were found in their vehicle.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43862861

At the end of October 2025, the international tribunal in The Hague heard testimony from Olena Yahupova, a resident of the town of Kamianka-Dniprovska in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Region. Recently, Yahupova shared additional details with The Insider, describing how she was abducted by Russian soldiers and detailing the torture and abuse she endured at their hands.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43816360

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France is probing possible foreign interference after a Latvian national was arrested and charged over the discovery on a passenger ferry of malware capable of allowing the vessel's operating systems to be controlled remotely, the Interior Minister said Wednesday.

The malware was found on the Fantastic passenger ferry with a capacity of over 2,000 passengers, belonging to Italian shipping company GNV while it was docked in France's Mediterranean port of Sete, Paris prosecutors said. Italian authorities had warned France that the operating system of the vessel could have been infected by a malware known as a Remote Access Trojan (RAT), which allows a hacker to gain remote control of a system.

Two crew members, a Latvian and a Bulgarian, whose identities had been signalled to France by the Italian authorities, were detained last week. The Bulgarian was freed but the Latvian was charged and placed under arrest in the investigation.

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France and other European governments have warned that Russia is stepping up a campaign of interference more than three and a half years into its war against Ukraine. "This is a very serious matter (...) individuals tried to hack into a ship's data-processing system," Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez told France Info radio early Wednesday. "Investigators are obviously looking into interference. Yes, foreign interference," he said.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43815995

• Former Permanent Secretary Philip Rycroft will assess finance and bribery rules and how to reduce risk of foreign interference
• Builds on new rules set out in Elections Strategy to guard against foreign political interference

Gill was jailed in November, after admitting to taking bribes for pro-Russian interviews and speeches when he was a Member of the European Parliament (MEP).

Announcing the review, Communities Secretary Steve Reed said the government must "learn the lessons" from the case so "this can never happen again".

The review will be led by former senior civil servant Philip Rycroft and will report back in March.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43814573

One of the leaders of the pro-Russian Koos party and Estonian citizen Aivo Peterson was sentenced to 14 years in prison for treason by Harju District Court on Thursday.

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The trial, which began in November 2023, dealt with allegations of treason against Estonian citizens Peterson and Dmitri Rootsi, as well as claims that Peterson and Russian citizen Andrei Andronov acted to undermine Estonia's independence.

The charges were connected to meetings with Russian politicians, aligning policy positions, the organization of an independent civil defense organization, and a Russian-funded press trip to occupied Ukraine.

According to the indictment, Peterson and Rootsi, based on instructions received from Russia, knowingly and in an organized manner assisted Russia and people acting on behalf of Russian authorities in non-violent activities directed against the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Estonia from October 2022 to March 10, 2023.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43813312

Chinese espionage crew 'Ink Dragon' expands its snooping activities into European government servers

In the last few months, the China-linked threat Ink Dragon's activities show increased focus on government targets in Europe in addition to continued activities in Southeast Asia and South America.

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Here is the original (technical) report: Inside Ink Dragon: Revealing the Relay Network and Inner Workings of a Stealthy Offensive Operation

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These attacks begin with Ink Dragon probing security weaknesses, such as misconfigured Microsoft IIS and SharePoint servers, to gain access to victims' environments. This tactic, as opposed to abusing zero-days or other high-profile vulnerabilities, helps attackers fly under the radar and reduces their chances of being caught.

Ink Dragon then scoops up credentials and uses existing accounts to infiltrate targets, tactics that help the gang blend in with normal network traffic.

"This stage is typically characterized by low noise and spreads through infrastructure that shares the same credentials or management patterns," Check Point's researchers said in a Tuesday blog.

Once Ink Dragon finds an account with domain-level access, the spies set to work establishing long-term access across high-value systems, installing backdoors and implants that store credentials and other sensitive data.

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In addition to their new targets and relay node activity, Check Point says the cyber spies have also updated their FinalDraft backdoor so that it blends in with common Microsoft cloud activity, hiding its command traffic inside mailbox drafts.

The new version also lets the malware check in during business hours - so as not to draw unwanted after-hour attention - and can more efficiently transfer large files with minimal noise.

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The threat hunters' investigation into Ink Dragon also uncovered similar, stealth activity by another China-linked espionage crew RudePanda, which "had quietly entered several of the same government networks," they wrote.

While the two groups are unrelated, they both abused the same server vulnerability to gain access to the same IT environments. This also illustrates the changing tactics among other government-sponsored cyber squads, including not only Beijing-backed crews, but also those from Russia.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43762657

• The European Union plans to expand its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism to some assembled goods such as cars and washing machines to help close loopholes.
• The EU introduced CBAM to safeguard its industry during an ambitious shift to net zero by 2050 and prompt other parts of the world to make their output greener.
• The EU will propose measures to extend the levy to selected steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products, and will also unveil a proposal on how to support its own exporters via a new fund.

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The European Union plans to expand an incoming emissions charge on imported goods as part of efforts to strengthen a flagship climate policy that’s aimed at protecting the bloc’s industries during the green shift.

The EU has pressed ahead with its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — which covers six emissions-intensive sectors — despite criticism from trading partners from the US to China. On Wednesday, it plans to propose measures to extend the levy to some assembled goods such as cars and washing machines to help close loopholes, according to a draft.

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The EU introduced CBAM to safeguard its industry during an ambitious shift to net zero by 2050 and prompt other parts of the world to make their output greener. The idea is that carbon-intensive sectors forced to comply with the bloc’s world-leading climate laws won’t face unfair competition from producers operating in nations with weaker rules. It comes amid concerns that Europe is deindustrializing under the strain of high energy prices and the green transition.

“The overall objective of the legislative proposal is to strengthen the effectiveness of CBAM, thus reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fighting climate change globally,” the EU says in the draft proposal, which is still subject to change. “This proposal will extend the scope of CBAM to selected steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products.”

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As of January this year, dozens of carbon-trading systems were in force globally, covering almost a fifth of global emissions, according to a report by non-profit organization IETA. Under EU rules, the fee importers will need to pay could be at least partially waived if a carbon levy has already been paid in the country where the goods were produced.

“The CBAM is deeply unpopular among major exporters to the EU, but it has already proven to be effective in pushing reticent countries toward building or expanding carbon-pricing efforts,” said Henry Lush, a carbon analyst at consultants Veyt.

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The European Commission on Wednesday will also unveil a proposal on how to support its own exporters via a new fund filled with a quarter of the proceeds collected from the levy over the next two years, according to a draft seen by Bloomberg. In addition, it will present detailed rules on calculating fees that importers will have to pay at the border, and measures to prevent circumvention.

The fees companies will have to pay will largely depend on the so-called default values, which will effectively set a price list for emissions when importers can’t provide verified, installation-specific data at the border, according to Robert Jeszke, head of Poland’s emissions management authority.

“In the early years, the most immediate behavioral effect is likely to be improved monitoring and verified reporting, rather than instant deep decarbonization across the board,” he said. “But CBAM’s financial materiality will rise over time.”

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43734791

Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin was clear about his intentions toward Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping has left no doubt about his plans for Taiwan. The only way to deter him from pursuing "reunification" with the island is to make clear that the costs of doing so will be punishing.

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Last month, Japan’s new prime minister, Takaichi Sanae, stated that Chinese aggression against the self-governing democratic island could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, warranting a military response.

Takaichi is right, but it is not just Japan that would be affected. Because Taiwan produces 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors and hosts one of its most vibrant globalized tech ecosystems, a blockade or invasion would send shockwaves through the global economy, potentially tilting the race for AI leadership in China’s favor. The fall of free Taiwan would also upend the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, placing much of Asia under China’s yoke, while cementing China’s chokehold on the South and East China Seas. For these reasons, a conflict over the island has the potential to escalate into a broader war.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43732293

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The EU has identified short-term rental platforms such as Airbnb, TripAdvisor, and Expedia as a major driver of Europe’s affordable housing shortage, but has stopped short of spelling out how far it intends to regulate them, according to a draft of its forthcoming housing plan seen by Euractiv.

While light on detail, the draft said the Commission will propose new legislation on short-term rentals next year, aimed at limiting their negative effects while “preserving their benefits.”

The initiative would form part of a broader housing package that pairs closer scrutiny of short-term rentals with a review of EU state-aid rules to steer public funding towards housing projects, alongside new simplification measures for planning, permitting, construction and renovation.

Housing shortages have emerged as a top political priority for the Commission, which has appointed Dan Jørgensen as its first commissioner dedicated to housing a year ago. The European Parliament has also established a special committee on the housing crisis.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43693292

Bloc’s justice commissioner says action needed to protect consumers from products sold on platforms such as Shein.

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[European Justice Commissioner] Michael McGrath [said] that the bloc was not protecting its citizens sufficiently from a rising tide of unsafe goods sent directly from China to customers’ homes.

“I am very concerned about the volume of unsafe products coming into the European Union. I think we have a duty to better protect EU citizens, and we also have a duty to European businesses to ensure that they are operating on a level playing field,” McGrath said.

The Irish commissioner said that “year in, year out” national authorities found products that were “very dangerous, with life-changing consequences for individuals” and which could “even cause loss of life”.

Customs and enforcement officers were overwhelmed, with only “a tiny proportion of the unsafe products coming into the European Union” being stopped, McGrath admitted. “That’s not good enough.”

Some 4.6bn low-value parcels entered the EU in 2024, and the number is continuing to double every two years, he said. Around 90 per cent come from China.

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He said when dangerous goods were identified, often by consumer groups, platforms usually got away with taking them off sale. “I think there needs to be a stronger deterrent,” he said.

Cosmetics and toys are among the most common types of products detected.

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Last month, Brussels said it was examining Shein’s sale of potentially illegal products, including childlike sex dolls and weapons, under its Digital Services Act, which regulates online content.

Brussels has asked for additional information from the company, which could lead to an in-depth investigation and fines.

It followed a move by Paris to suspend the site in France for allegedly advertising the products. France is also seeking to ban AliExpress, owned by Chinese tech group Alibaba, and Portugal-headquartered Joom for similar reasons.

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cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/43626010

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Any peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine will only last if Moscow makes real concessions, including limiting the size of its armed forces and curbing its growing military budget, the EU’s top diplomat has said.

In an interview with the Italian daily Corriere della Sera published on Friday, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, warned that without meaningful concessions from Moscow, Europe risks facing new conflicts elsewhere.

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The problem for peace is Russia,” Kallas said, adding: “Even if Ukraine received security guarantees, without concessions from the Russian side, we would have other wars, perhaps not in Ukraine but elsewhere.”

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Kallas said that Kyiv and its allies “certainly welcome the momentum toward peace that the U.S. administration is showing,” but cautioned that Russia lacks a “genuine will for peace.”

“It [Russia] is constantly bombing Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure,” she told Corriere della Sera, stressing that “first we need to see a ceasefire.”

She said that in order to achieve sustainable peace, it is necessary to ensure that “Russia does not attack again”, adding that this requires clear concessions from Moscow.

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"We need concessions from Russia, whether that means limiting its army or restraining its military budget,” said Kallas, who served as Estonia’s prime minister from 2016 to 2021.

Moscow has significantly increased its military budget in recent years, diverting vast resources toward the defense industry to sustain its war in Ukraine.

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